Back in 2018, it took just eight words to ignite the party's annual gathering and to show the party was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not exactly soaring oratory, the phrase were greeted with wild cheering as delegates rose in spontaneous acclamation.
As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his addresses having such an effect. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.
During that darkly divisive time in 2018, departing from his agreed text like this was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in key constituencies above the Europhile sentiments of his party. With that single address, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.
The Shift in Position & Closed Debates
Since then, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. An early move after taking over in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue was resolved by the 2019 national vote. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” commitments that forbade re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.
Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in key seats, even if polling evidence indicates a significant number have died or changed their minds.
Pressure Building on the EU
Yet, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled party leader. And, if Europe is no longer the boiling pot in UK politics, a lid that has been kept tightly sealed since Brexit is beginning to rattle again.
Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified their language about the devastation that leaving the EU has inflicted on the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool to criticize the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and is still his sole political accomplishment.
Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has left Britain with a national economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, towers over the micro-mitigation so far offered by ministers. The PM's much-touted re-set deal negotiated with the EU last summer offers economic benefits measured in fractions of a percent.
Cabinet Divergence & Bolder Ideas
The chancellor is one of those attempting to bypass entrenched interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling program for young people allowing young people can move between Britain and Europe for work or study.
David Lammy muses openly regarding the clear advantages of being in a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, last week voted for an opposition proposal on joining one.
While the Europe minister, who oversees EU policy, now present at every cabinet meeting, maintains the red lines remain unchanged, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. One idea involves declaring the commencement of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after Labour won a fresh mandate.
The Prime Minister's Fundamental Doubts
Yet, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water again cautioning that a return to an EU customs arrangement could undermine the trade pacts with America, which he regards as signature achievements of his government.
Reportedly that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, stemming from three further factors.
- Firstly, he believes a customs pact has been made significantly more difficult as ministers are busily de-aligning from European rules across a range of sectors, including the environment.
- Second, the exorbitant price set for the UK to join a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure of negotiations has convinced British officials that former EU partners are less interested in cutting special deals to the UK and are more focused on demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
- Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is seen by key advisors in Downing Street as a reason for the UK to keep its distance from the EU.
An Alarming Strategy & Geopolitical Considerations
This bizarre and terrifying document asserts Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” because of Muslim migration. It includes only one reference to Britain, placed beside a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in British politics to foster the growth of “patriotic” parties.
But, far from deciding that this makes America an undependable ally, ministers reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Succession Chatter and The Echo from the Past
All of which brings us back to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not a pitch to become leader but merely an effort to keep open the “option” of staying in the EU in a future vote. Indeed, back then, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he now appears to be opposing.
Observers within the Prime Minister's office note that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would stand for the leadership, is among a clutch of cabinet ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition on Europe.
Staff for Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a contest for the top job, insist she won’t discuss her position regarding a customs pact because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Obvious Risk & A Wise Reminder
The risk is clear. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to claim the territory where most of the party's supporters reside.
It would be prudent for Starmer to remember the effect just a few words had for him seven years ago. Potential pathways for a major proposal on EU relations which the PM should not “rule out”; he should prise them open personally, before someone else adopt them as their own.
